Imagine tossing a coin and wondering how many times you'll get heads. Or think about taking a test with multiple-choice questions and guessing how many answers you might get right. We use a concept known as the binomial distribution to solve these types of problems.
In this blog, we will look at what the binomial distribution is, how it works, when to use it, and how it compares to similar concepts like the Poisson distribution. You'll also find formulas, properties, real-life examples, and answers to common questions about binomial probability distribution.
Table Of Contents
The binomial distribution is a way of calculating the chances of a specific number of successes happening in a fixed number of trials. Each trial must only have two outcomes: success or failure.
To define binomial distribution, we say: “A binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarises the likelihood of a value taking one of two independent outcomes across several trials.” For example, flipping a coin 5 times and counting the number of heads is a binomial distribution because: Each flip is a trial. Each flip has two possible outcomes (head or tail). The probability of success (getting a head) stays the same in each trial.
Here’s the formula for the binomial probability distribution:
P(X = k) = ππΆπ × p^k × (1−p)^(n−k)
Where:
P(X = k) = Probability of getting exactly k successes
n = Number of trials
k = Number of successful outcomes
p = Probability of success in a single trial
nCk = Number of ways to choose k successes from n trials (called a combination)
This formula helps us calculate probabilities in situations where events happen a fixed number of times, and each time is either a success or a failure.
The binomial distribution has special properties that make it unique. Here are the 4 main properties:
These are the key rules that help define binomial distribution and distinguish it from other types of distributions.
You can use the binomial distribution when:
Some examples where the binomial probability distribution applies:
Let’s explore how the binomial distribution works in real life.
You toss a coin 3 times. What’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads?
Here:
n = 3
k = 2
p = 0.5 (chance of head)
Using the formula:
P(X = 2) = 3C2 × (0.5)^2 × (0.5)^1 = 3 × 0.25 × 0.5 = 0.375
So, the probability is 0.375 or 37.5%.
A student guesses answers to 5 multiple-choice questions, each with 4 options (only one correct). What’s the chance of getting 2 right answers?
Here:
n = 5
k = 2
p = 0.25 (1 out of 4 options is correct)
P(X = 2) = 5C2 × (0.25)^2 × (0.75)^3 = 10 × 0.0625 × 0.421875 = 0.2637
The chance is about 26.37%.
One of the best real-world examples of a binomial distribution is quality control. Let’s say a factory produces light bulbs and checks a batch of 100 bulbs. The chance that a bulb is defective is 0.01. The manager wants to know how likely it is that no more than 2 bulbs are defective. This is a perfect case for applying the binomial probability distribution, where each bulb is a trial. Only two outcomes: defective or not. The probability of being defective is fixed. Trials are independent.
People often get confused between the binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, so let’s compare them.
Feature |
Binomial Distribution |
Poisson Distribution |
Number of trials |
Fixed (n) |
No fixed number |
Outcomes |
Two (success/failure) |
Counts of occurrences |
Example |
Flipping coins |
Counting calls per hour |
Mean |
np |
λ (lambda) |
Formula |
P(X = k) = ππΆπ × p^k × (1−p)^(n−k) |
P(X = k) = (e^−λ × λ^k) / k! |
Example of Poisson Distribution
If a call centre gets an average of 5 calls per hour, and you want to know the chance of receiving exactly 3 calls in an hour, you use the Poisson distribution. But if you want to know the chance of 3 out of 10 people saying “yes” to a question, you use the binomial distribution.
A graph of the binomial distribution is usually a bar graph that shows how likely each outcome is. It looks like a bell shape when the number of trials is large and the probability of success is close to 0.5. If the success probability is very small or large, the graph becomes skewed.
The binomial distribution is an important idea in probability. It helps us analyse situations where two possible outcomes occur repeatedly. Whether you are flipping coins, answering test questions, or conducting scientific research, being able to use the binomial probability distribution allows you to calculate the chances of outcomes quickly and correctly. It is one of the most useful tools in statistics, and mastering it will simplify many probability problems.
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Ans: The binomial distribution is a probability model used when an event is repeated a fixed number of times, each time with only two possible outcomes (like win/lose), and the probability of success stays the same.
Ans:
A fixed number of trials (n)
Each trial has two outcomes (success/failure)
Same probability of success in each trial (p)
All trials are independent
Ans: Flipping a coin 5 times and counting how many times you get heads is a good example of a binomial situation.
Ans: One of the best examples is quality control in manufacturing. For example, checking how many defective items are in a batch of 50 products, with a known defect rate.
Ans: The binomial distribution deals with a fixed number of trials (like flipping a coin 10 times), while the Poisson distribution deals with the number of times something happens in a given time or space (like counting calls to a call centre in one hour).
Example of Binomial: Tossing a coin 10 times.
Example of Poisson: Getting 3 emails in one hour when the average is 2.
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